Hundreds of pro-democracy protesters remain encamped in northern parts of Hong Kong Island, in Hong Kong, on 8 October. While the intensity of the protest activity has diminished considerably since its peak on 1 and 2 October, considerable business and travel disruptions continue to be reported in the Central, Admiralty and Causeway Bay areas of the city.

The large-scale demonstrations reportedly diminished as protest leaders began preliminary talks with the government on 6 October; the next round of talks is scheduled to begin at 16:00 local time on 10 October.

Despite this, protest leaders and student representatives have indicated that they intend to continue with the protest campaign until their demands are met. The campaign organisers, 'Occupy Central' civil society group and Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS), are demanding the resignation of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, as well as the implementation of various electoral reforms ahead of the 2017 Chief Executive poll. Despite the reduced number of protesters in recent days, depending on the outcome of the ongoing negotiations, the potential for further escalation in protest action remains possible in the coming days. Continued disruptions to business, road and public transport services should be expected to continue for the near-term.

Mass demonstrations, labour protests and ethnic or religious violence have increased the potential risk of business disruption in nearly 20% of countries over the last three months, including in the important markets of Hong Kong, Kenya, Nigeria, China and Mexico, according to the Civil Unrest Index (CUI) by global risk analytics company Maplecroft.

The quarterly ranking of 197 countries, which assesses the likelihood of strikes, protests, ethnic or sectarian clashes or conflict disrupting business operations, identifies Hong Kong as experiencing the largest increase in risk over the last quarter, due to the mass democracy protests of recent days. The Chinese administered territory fell 62 places in the ranking from 132nd and ‘medium risk’ to 70th and ‘high risk.’ Liberia, meanwhile, which dropped from 113th to 74th in the index, saw the second highest rise in risk, due to mounting unrest caused by the spread of the Ebola virus.

In the overall ranking, 11 countries are considered ‘extreme risk,’ many of which experience internal conflict and violence driven by ethnic or religious tensions. These include: Syria, Central African Republic, Pakistan, Sudan, South Sudan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and DR Congo. Conversely, Bangladesh has recorded a steady increase in civil unrest risks due to anti-government protests by opposition parties, as well as labour strikes against poor working conditions and other labour rights violations.

Civil unrest in a further 69 countries is considered as potentially posing a ‘high risk’ to the continuity of business operations, including in the Asian manufacturing hubs of Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, China, India, Cambodia and the Philippines. As a result of civil unrest some companies operating in and sourcing from these countries have faced severe disruptions, including from strikes, while the economic impacts have also been significant.

Anti-Chinese protests in Vietnam in May 2014 led to violence and serious property damage, not only of Chinese but also other foreign-owned assets. Many factories were forced to suspend production, while those worst affected by the violence saw falls of between 4 and 16% in their share value. Prolonged anti-government protests in Thailand, which culminated in a military coup in May 2014, shut down much the country’s commercial centre. The protests not only disrupted business operations in Bangkok, they caused the IMF to lower the 2014 projected GDP growth rate to 2.5%, down from 5.2%, which could cost the country an estimated US$9.8 billion.

“Tracking the trajectory of countries with rising levels of unrest should be a top priority for business continuity planners and risk managers” says Charlotte Ingham, principal analyst at Maplecroft. “Civil unrest can create significant risks to operations and supply chains and impact the safety of employees and company property.”

According to Maplecroft, the Civil Unrest Index analyses the strength of governance, political and civil rights, abuses by state security forces, the economic situation and the frequency and severity of incidents to provide a current picture of civil unrest, which also takes in the potential for further outbreaks.

When looking at these factors, Hong Kong performs comparatively well in the economic, social and rights factors in the CUI, but performs poorly for democratic governance, due chiefly to the underlying democratic deficit in an electoral system where candidates are pre-selected by Beijing. The scale of the protests, which has cost retailers upwards of $283m, has seen Hong Kong move from the ‘medium risk’ category to ‘high risk.’ Beijing’s response will be key to determining whether the situation deteriorates further.

Like Hong Kong, Liberia has also moved from ‘medium’ to ‘high risk’ in the index. However, this is predominantly driven by outbreaks of civil unrest related to the Ebola outbreak. The most severe example of this took place on 20 August 2014 when four people were injured in Monrovia during clashes between protesters and security forces, who fired live rounds and tear gas to quell the crowd. Guinea and Sierra Leone have also been host to violent protests related to the outbreak of the disease.

Elsewhere in West Africa, Nigeria fell six places in the ranking. Given the Nigerian government’s weak response to the country’s terrorist threat and the upcoming elections in February, Maplecroft is expecting the risk of civil unrest to rise further in the coming months.

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