Civil unrest drives risk in global political and terrorism threat map

Aon is urging firms to ensure threats to business continuity are considered as 37 countries were regraded in its 2012 Terrorism & Political Violence Map.

As austerity measures and spending cuts took hold throughout 2012, civil unrest, riots, strikes and student protests were witnessed across large parts of Europe. The UK, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain were all regraded from low to medium risk. Dramatic political change in the Arab world continued to cause aftershocks in that region and beyond. Authoritarian governments in Africa and Asia took measures to protect themselves from similar challenges as civil unrest, property damage and localised protests continued in the Middle East and North Africa.

Meanwhile, terrorism remains relevant to the security of businesses, with 46% of all countries assessed possessing the risk of terrorist incident icon. The death of Osama bin Laden last year signified the decline of a truly globalised radical Islamist terrorism capability, but regionally active groups continue to be inspired by al-Qaida's ideology.

While South Asia and the Middle East remain as focal points for Islamist terrorist groups, Africa has shown the most dramatic shift in terrorism threat in the last year. The ratings of six African countries were regraded with Senegal regraded from low to high risk.

Neil Henderson, head of terrorism in Aon Risk Solutions' Crisis Management Practice, commented: "Companies that operate internationally have to keep up to date with potential risks around the world to enable them to protect their employees, physical assets and ultimately, their bottom line.

"Businesses need to identify the threats they face and implement a comprehensive risk management program to protect themselves. As the insurance market for political violence is very mature and can cope with complex international risks, it should be considered as part of a business' sound risk management program."

Dr. David Claridge, managing director of Risk Advisory, added: "Once again the map highlights the challenges businesses face in ensuring the security and continuity of their global operations. For the first time since the map's inception, we have recorded significant negative ratings in Western Europe that reflect civil disorder in economies traditionally seen as stable. With further austerity measures still to be imposed and the eurozone crisis only in remission, economic and social degradation are likely to be important drivers of future unrest. The Arab Spring features heavily in our assessments, both for its contribution to civil unrest, and also as post-uprising states fail to guarantee local and regional security. Weapons proliferation and unchecked growth of radical groups in Libya, Yemen and the Sinai Peninsula are of particular concern."

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