Hurricane Ian made landfall near Cayo Costa in Florida on Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 150mph – the first major hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Ida in 2021.

The National Hurricane Centre reported catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.

According to Aon's Impact Forecasting Cat Alert of Wednesday evening, catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight through early Thursday.

Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast US later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to continue across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina.

There is a danger, it added, of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible.

Current industry loss estimates range from US$10bn to over US$30bn.

P/C analysts at Morgan Stanley consider individual company exposures to be manageable. While total insured losses for the year should be under US$100bn, it still expects strong reinsurance pricing into 2023.

BMS group estimates Ian, after shifting east, may cause an industry loss of over US$20bn. Guy Carpenter provides a wider range with a US$10 to US$35bn industry loss estimate. Karen Clark & Company’s initial high estimate of US$32.5bn was based on a scenario where Ian made landfall nearer to Tampa.

Hurricane Ian's details are similar to that of Hurricane Charley, which made landfall on Sanibel Island as a Cat 4 in August 2004.

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