Lockton Re has launched a new research series examining storm dynamics and the impact of climate change on the ability to predict future trends.

Part one of the series assesses storm dynamics and the reinsurance industry and explores the outlook for hurricanes, tropical cyclones, and typhoon patterns and trends. The research focuses on the hurricane peril, including tropical cyclone and typhoon patterns, impacts to climates that could alter the nature of this peril, and Lockton Re’s view of storm trends and their potential development.

Claude Yoder, global head of analytics for Lockton Re, said: “Underlying climate related changes are making it challenging to predict storm dynamics. Past focus on frequency and severity of storms may have missed more fundamental global climate changes. Some of those changes are becoming more evident as the likelihood of loss causing storms has increased.”

In three additional follow-up publications, Lockton Re will explore the industry’s exposure to hurricanes and the fast-changing nature of home and building structures and their ability to withstand storms; a unique view of comprehensive risk transfer option creation; and how placement techniques are trending and improving within the property re/insurance market.

Yoder added: “Wind speed alone is no longer a good predictor of damages. As climate change has increased precipitation and made storm surge more likely, even lower categorized storms (as a function of wind speed), can create material loss.”

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