Analytics firm Moody’s RMS estimates the total private market insured losses from Hurricane Idalia to be between US$3bn and US$5bn, with a best estimate of US$3.5bn. The estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding.

Estimates of insured wind and storm surge losses from Idalia are based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Moody’s RMS Version 23 North Atlantic hurricane models. These ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Idalia’s hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge.

Moody’s RMS developed and validated the wind, storm surge, and inland flood reconstructions and corresponding loss estimates using publicly available data, including wind station observations, river gauge water level data, web reconnaissance, and analysis of aerial imagery.

Jeff Waters, staff product manager, North Atlantic hurricane models, Moody’s RMS, said: “Major Hurricane Idalia could have been much more impactful had the storm taken a different track or not weakened just before landfall. As a result, the tight gradient of damaging winds combined with limited exposure and low flood take-up rates in the worst-affected area should reduce the overall level of insured losses.”

“Nevertheless, we expect this event will test Florida re/insurers on the heels of new legislation passed over the last several months to stabilize the market and curb the impacts of social inflation.”

Major Hurricane Idalia was the ninth named storm of the 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, the third hurricane, and the second named storm to make landfall in the US this season. Mid-September sees the climatological peak of the season, with more than two months remaining in the 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season which officially ends on 30 November.

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