Long-term uncertainty stemming from macroeconomic competition and geopolitical insecurity are leading to greater economic divergence between sectors and economies, at a time when unpredictable and disruptive security events are increasing in frequency.
This is amongst the findings of Marsh Specialty’s 2024 Political Risk Report, published this week, which outlines the major trends in the current global political and economic landscape that will impact multinationals and investors in the year ahead.
Despite continued volatility and uncertainty, there are substantial global growth opportunities that organisations may benefit from, if these risks are managed effectively, the report’s authors maintain.
According to the report, a record number of voters heading to the polls this year are likely to focus on internal economic and international security concerns. In addition, the weaponisation of artificial intelligence by non-state groups, adversarial states, politicians and individuals to amplify misinformation and disinformation will further exacerbate policy uncertainty and political violence risks for organisations and investors.
Robert Perry, global political risks and structured credit leader, Marsh Specialty, commented: “The outcomes of the elections taking place this year are set to direct the course of global events for the next decade and beyond. While the world feels like a riskier place in such a time of such macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, businesses that effectively manage and transfer risks in this rapidly-changing environment will be well-positioned to seize on future growth opportunities and continue to thrive.”
The report also forecasts that fragile macroeconomic conditions in the wake of the 2024 elections will be further stressed by high debt levels among companies and governments. This, combined with potential weak growth in advanced geographies, could disrupt governmental investment policies and contribute to heightened credit, supply chain and business interruption risks for organisations.
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