A study published today by the Lord Mayor of London and the Royal Society of Chemistry suggests that global temperatures are on track to increase by over 3 degrees by 2100.

In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced a number of climate scenarios, which relate potential climate change to various carbon budgets. These scenarios lead to warming of 1.6 C, 2.4 C, 2.8 C, and 4.3 C respectively, and the target of most climate scientists is to restrict warming to under 2 C, and preferably to the 1.6 C by 2100.

Professor Michael Mainelli’s paper calculates the amount of carbon dioxide generated by burning the world’s current reserves (after allowing for non-fuel uses), and finds that it exceeds the recommendations by the IPCC by 5 to 10 times. Present rates of consumption, if continued to 2100, would lead to global temperature increases approaching 3 degrees or more, and CO2 levels around 630ppm.

Industry observers in the paper comment that, left alone, fossil fuel industries are “likely to carry on a large amount of business as usual, interspersed with a rather gradual response to changes they see taking decades to come to fruition”.

The paper calls on policymakers to take decisive action to steer fossil fuel companies away from 'business as usual' practices, outlining a series of recommendations aimed at policymakers, private and public sector investors, including:

• Carbon pricing: Implementing or strengthening international carbon pricing mechanisms incentivises companies to reduce their carbon footprint and invest in cleaner technologies.

• 'Just transition' plans: Comprehensive plans should be developed to support workers and communities affected by the shift away from fossil fuels, ensuring a fair and equitable distribution of the benefits of a low-carbon economy.

• Government 'skin in the game': Governments should encourage long-term investments in renewable energy and related technologies by providing stable and predictable policy frameworks with clear regulations and timelines for achieving net zero carbon targets.

• International co-operation: Governments and international investors should seek ways to help developing countries modernise their infrastructure while reducing fossil fuel consumption (particularly coal fired electric power generation).

The Lord Mayor of the City of London is the head of the City of London Corporation, the governing body of the Square Mile.


Figure of carbon ‘bubbles’ (Source: The Royal Society of Chemistry). This is a semi quantitative comparison of the carbon dioxide potential of current reserves. The blue, orange and black circles in the foreground indicate the relative sizes of CO2 from gas, oil and coal, and are superimposed on translucent circles representing IPCC RCP budgets – the numbers specify radiative forcing values between 2.6 and 8.5 W m−2 in the year 2100. The oil circle alone is close to exceeding that of RCP2.6.

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