Some 280 notable global natural disaster events in Q1-Q3 resulted in economic losses of at least £199bn and insurance losses equivalent to £79bn, according to the latest Global Catastrophe Recap report from Aon.

Losses from Hurricane Milton and additional events expected over the remainder of the calendar year, however, will likely result in total annual insured losses above those seen in 2023 (£96bn), the risk advisor said. Economic losses for the period were significantly lower than losses during the 2023 period (£270bn).

These dynamics resulted in a protection gap of 60%, one of the lowest on record, mainly due to the higher contribution of insured losses in the US, where insurance penetration is comparatively high.

The total number of fatalities from natural disasters to the end of Q3 was estimated at around 13,000 – the lowest since 1986.

Michal Lorinc, head of catastrophe insight at Aon, said: “Our latest study highlights the complexity of natural catastrophe risk management for organisations, necessitating a myriad of resources around physical measures, warning systems, forecasts and public awareness. The insurance industry has again played a significant role in this process, with re/insurance covering a high proportion of the global losses so far this year relative to previous periods.”

Aon estimates that global reinsurer capital neared £539bn as of 30th June – a figure that is forecast to grow in 2025, provided no substantial catastrophic events reverse this trend.


Report insight (Source: Aon’s Q3 Global Catastrophe Recap – October 2024 Report)

Aon's report shows that insured losses from primary perils during the first nine months of 2024 were relatively low, with no event exhibiting the potential to significantly impact the broader reinsurance market. Most of the losses, including those from severe convective storms as the costliest peril overall, continued to be retained by insurers, prolonging the period of exceptional returns for reinsurers.

Third-quarter insured losses were driven by three costly Atlantic hurricanes, SCS outbreaks in the United States and Canada, as well as flooding in Central Europe.

Canada is enduring its costliest insurance loss year on record, with the majority of the impact occurring as a result of four events within one month in Q3, with expected payouts exceeding £4.5bn. Elsewhere, Typhoon Yagi – the deadliest event of the year and costliest event on record in Vietnam – became the overall third costliest event in the period under review.

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