Following a highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, marked by five major storms and significant impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton across the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic US, Acrisure Re expects the 2025 season to be “above average", though likely less intense than last year.

The reinsurance broker’s pre-season outlook draws on analysis from its analytics and modelling teams. It points to cooler sea surface temperatures compared to 2024, but still above normal; a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase; and average conditions in the Sahel region, suggesting limited influence from Saharan dust.

Simon Hedley, chief executive at Acrisure Re, said falling US property catastrophe reinsurance rates seen at January and mid-year renewals may hinge on upcoming storm activity. “Much will depend on weather,” he said. “As always, Acrisure Re will be monitoring the tropics and providing real-time updates before and after any potential events.”

Ming Li, partner and global head of catastrophe modelling, added that current indicators suggest an average to slightly above-average season, with continued monitoring essential to support client preparedness.

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