War has overtaken civil unrest as the political violence exposure companies fear most, as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt global trade flows, strain political alliances, embolden adversarial powers and heighten risks to business assets. Around 60% of respondents from Europe and Asia-Pacific to the Political violence and civil unrest trends 2026 survey by Allianz Commercial see war as the top risk. Civil unrest was listed by 49%, and terrorism/sabotage by 46%.

Businesses impacted by armed conflict face significant challenges, including supply chain disruptions, loss of market access, as well as the risk of cyber-attacks and sabotage, the report notes, adding that even before the Iran war, it is estimated that business assets had experienced a 20%+ increase in exposure to conflict in the last five years.

The report suggests that, in the UK, concern is centred less on war itself and more on the disruption that can flow from political violence. Terrorism and sabotage rank highest among UK respondents at 59%, followed by civil unrest and government intervention or protectionism, both at 55%. War is cited by 48%, while 45% point to disinformation campaigns, highlighting the risks posed by instability, disruption and uncertainty.

Luke Baker, director UK global & specialty, Allianz Commercial, said: “While war is the top concern globally, UK businesses are more focused on the disruptive effects of political violence closer to home. Terrorism and sabotage, civil unrest and government intervention all rank higher in the UK, showing how concerns are extending beyond conflict itself to the wider threat it poses to operations, supply chains and business confidence.”

Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial, added: “Wars, the threat of future conflicts and other political violence activities are likely to undermine geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 and for years to come.

“For many companies, there is a visibility gap when it comes to vulnerabilities in their physical and digital supply chains due to such geopolitical risks. Being able to identify these complex exposures is crucial. Risk managers must be relentlessly forward-looking with their resilience strategies, constantly refining them to keep pace with emerging threats as they arise from multiple sources, now and in the future.”

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