Howden Re’s 2026 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook has forecast a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season following several years of elevated activity.

Early forecasts from major meteorological agencies and research groups predict lower storm counts and reduced accumulated cyclone energy, largely due to the expected development of El Niño conditions during the peak of the season.

El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic, making it more difficult for storms to form and intensify.

The average forecast currently points to 13 named storms (40mph+), six hurricanes (75mph+) and two major hurricanes (Cat 3, or 111mph+). This compares with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 1991–2020 averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

While Atlantic sea surface temperatures have moderated after the unusually warm conditions of 2023 and 2024, risks remain elevated in parts of the western Atlantic and along the US East Coast where waters are expected to stay warmer than average.

The report also highlighted the growing role of artificial intelligence in hurricane forecasting and warned that rising coastal exposure, higher rebuilding costs and the threat of rapid intensification continue to leave insurers exposed to significant losses, even during quieter seasons.

Anna Pergerson, managing director and head of catastrophe research and development at Howden Re, said: “Seasonal forecasts provide useful context around the broader risk environment, but they don’t determine where storms will track or where losses will occur. Even in a below-average season, a single landfalling hurricane can drive significant insured losses.”

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