Global insured natural catastrophe losses reached an estimated £31.1bn in the first half of 2026, 16% below the 10-year average, according to Swiss Re Institute. Losses from severe convective storms were also below trend.

Swiss Re cautioned that the lower first-half total does not indicate that catastrophe risk has receded, however. Insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by an estimated 8% to 11% a year in real terms since 1970, making wildfire the fastest-growing weather peril globally.

Europe is experiencing 64% more hot days (defined as days when the daily maximum temperature reaches 30°C or more) than in the 1950s.

The UK has also experienced prolonged hot and dry conditions this summer, with wildfires and drought conditions putting additional pressure on water supplies and agriculture.

Balz Grollimund, head of catastrophe perils at Swiss Re, said: "A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away. One major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire can quickly change the picture. Europe's recent wildfires highlight how hotter and drier conditions are making large wildfires more likely and, with more homes, businesses and infrastructure built in risk-exposed areas, also more costly."

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