El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organisation.

Forecasts from WMO’s global producing ventres indicate an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. The WMO says this is the first time that an El Niño/La Niña update has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong agreement within WMO’s network.

Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.

António Guterres, UN secretary-general, said: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”

El Niño generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February. Its impact on global temperatures can extend beyond the period of peak ocean warming and be most pronounced in the year after development.

Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, added: “El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”

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