France’s latest wave of civil unrest could generate losses greater than those incurred after the 2023 riots. More than 3,000 shops are estimated to have been damaged or looted over the weekend. The scale of the destruction could make the ongoing unrest one of France’s most significant ever strikes, riots and civil commotion events, according to Jess Middleton, senior Europe analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

Around 2,500 properties were damaged as a result of the 2023 riots, generating approximately €1bn in insured losses. The final cost of the latest wave of violence in the country will depend on claims assessments, with insurers, commercial property owners and businesses facing potential exposure to further damage and disruption.

Interior minister Laurent Nuñez has offered his resignation amid scrutiny of security forces’ preparedness and response. Underlying grievances, including cost-of-living pressures and discontent over public services and education, could continue to stoke protests, adding pressure on the government to demonstrate its ability to maintain order.

"Despite a relatively calm night on Monday, the reckoning from France’s worst bout of violence in years is set to continue. Authorities are scrambling not only to restore order through targeted curfews in major cities, but also to reassure markets, outside observers and the wider general public that the government remains in control of the situation in the country,” Middleton said.

Beyond the volatility in France, Europe is experiencing persistent inflation, while strained public finances and limited government flexibility are fuelling social mobilisation.

Protests in Italy, Belgium and Portugal over the weekend underline the wider pressures, while significant strike activity is planned in Portugal and Spain in November.

“Europe is becoming a pressure cooker for social unrest, with squeezed households, rising political polarisation and growing discontent with governments proving increasingly fertile ground for disruptive and damaging demonstrations," Middleton added. "A repeat of the kind of violence seen in France is far from inevitable, but with governments facing difficult fiscal choices and a dense election calendar through to the end of 2027, the potential for disruptive and damaging unrest will remain elevated in Europe over the near term."

Verisk Maplecroft’s predictive Civil Unrest Index ranks Europe as the world’s highest-risk region by a significant margin. Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Belgium are all among the 10 highest-risk countries globally, alongside the US, India, Mexico and Brazil.

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