Strikes, riots and civil commotion around the world are likely to continue to be fuelled by anger over growing social inequality and the cost-of-living, foundering faith in governments and institutions and increasingly polarized politics, together with a rise in activism and environmental concerns, according to a new report from insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty.

AGCS says the heightened risk environment means businesses need to remain vigilant about the different threats such activity can pose. In addition to buildings or assets suffering costly material damage, operations can be severely disrupted, resulting in significant loss of income.
Srdjan Todorovic, head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at AGCS, said: “Incidences of strikes, riots and civil commotion have not only increased in recent years, they are also becoming more intense and catastrophic. These types of events are making our era one of uncertainty.

“We have seen multibillion-dollar loss events in the US, Chile, and Colombia. The threat is changing, and although many of the reasons for it are universal – whether economic, political, or environmental – it can play out differently in different regions, with various levels of violence and disruption. Operational and security management within organizations should view the current climate as a catalyst for evaluating best practices and policies around preparing locations and employees for potential civil unrest and building resilience.”

Civil unrest risks rose in over 50% of countries between Q2 and Q3 2022 alone, according to the Verisk Maplecroft Civil Unrest Index; out of 198 countries, 101 saw an increase in risk. Since 2017, more than 400 significant anti-government protests have erupted worldwide, so is perhaps unsurprising that ‘political risks and violence’ ranks as a top 10 peril in the Allianz Risk Barometer in 2023. While the Ukraine war is a major factor in this ranking, the results also show that the impact of SRCC activity ranks as a political violence risk of top concern with a combined score of almost 70%.

AGCS says unrest is now spreading more quickly and widely thanks in part to the galvanizing effect of social media. This means multiple locations can be impacted, potentially resulting in multiple losses for companies. Such events are also lasting for longer – almost a quarter of the 400 significant anti-governments protests since 2017 were in excess of three months – helping to ensure financial costs are mounting. Reported damages from just six civil unrest events around the world between 2018 and 2023 resulted in at least US$12bn in economic/insured losses.

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