Nation-state 'hot zones' offer view of the future of cyber war – report

Nation-state cyber threat activity will push the boundaries of war exclusion language, warns cyber risk analytics specialist CyberCube, with some industry sectors potentially under-secured against the potential risks.

In a new report examining selected nation-state cyber hot zones to gain insight into the potential cyber re/insurance impacts of future cyber wars, CyberCube has assessed these zones for evidence of cyber attacks bridging the divide between digital and physical impacts. It analyzed cyber threat actors in Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, Iran/Israel, and North Korea/South Korea.

William Altman, cyber threat intelligence principal at CyberCube, said: “Nation-state cyber hot zones offer a glimpse into the potential future of cyber war. In Q4 2023, CyberCube expects to see nation-state cyber threat actors conduct themselves in ways that push the cyber re/insurance industry to consider the limitations and strengths of current war-exclusion language deeply.”

The research – CyberCube’s global threat outlook: a perspective on the threat landscape for Q4 2023 – also picks out the highest-risk sectors to keep an eye on in Q4. These include professional services and healthcare, which the report warns are both under-secured relative to the threats they face and make attractive targets, with high levels of sensitive data, leaving companies vulnerable to ransomware and extortion tactics.

The report notes that while there has been substantial progress and momentum achieved this year, including, in March, Lloyd’s of London rolling out an exclusion for cyber war and severe state-backed attacks, the reinsurance market is yet to settle on a consistent approach that is acceptable to all stakeholders.

Yvette Essen, CyberCube’s head of content, communications & creative, said: “The approaches currently being adopted carry significant uncertainty, mainly due to the complexities surrounding the attribution of cyber incidents and the scarcity of historical parallels. By striving for consistency and clarity, we can bolster confidence in the cyber reinsurance sector, shielding it from the impact of outlier events, while reinforcing the overall value of cyber insurance products.”

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