Rising political polarisation is associated with increased political violence and unpredictable oscillations in government policies, according to the latest Political Risk Index from Willis.

Findings from the index reveal affective polarisation is at an historic high, on a global average basis, suggesting that people are increasingly likely to perceive supporters of opposing political parties as hostile. Countries enduring violent political conflicts tend to be the most polarised, but on average, affective polarisation is rising fastest in such countries as the US, Germany, India, Brazil and Bulgaria.

The index also covers ideological polarisation (the degree to which people agree on core policy issues) and elite polarisation (the degree to which political rivals consider each other as legitimate). The US is the only country globally where affective, ideological and elite polarisation have all increased at a rapid pace over the past 15 years.

Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said: “There is a well-established correlation between polarisation and political violence. But polarisation is also being felt on a more personal basis, such as how we perceive our friends and colleagues. Businesses face growing challenges from operating in increasingly polarised societies.”

After reviewing over a century’s worth of data from more than 200 countries, Willis found that in democracies, surges in polarisation tended to follow economic crises or corruption scandals, which appeared to discredit traditional political leaders. These surges were often accompanied by the growth of populist political movements and an increased frequency of political violence events.

The research also identifies some hopeful trends. Truth and reconciliation processes, cross-party coalitions and open and transparent investigations in cases of corruption or other crises have been accompanied by rapid reductions in political polarisation in the past. There is reason to believe that lessons from these examples could be applied to current challenges, according to the report’s authors.

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