Lloyd’s has unveiled its second systemic risk scenario, modelling the ramifications of a major cyber attack, the potential global economic losses of which, it says, could reach US$3.5trn.
Produced by Lloyd’s Futureset in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, the scenario is the second in a series of nine designed to help risk owners better understand their exposure to critical threats. Amongst the other scenarios modelled in the suite are geopolitical conflict, human pandemic and economic stagnation.
In this scenario, the model explores the fall-out after a (hypothetical) unprecedented, simultaneous and highly sophisticated cyber attack takes place against multiple financial services organisations payment systems. The impacts deal a significant blow to confidence in financial institutions and in transactional relationships that underpin trade and international security.
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