Data analytics provider Verisk estimates that the industry insured losses from Storm Ciarán could range from €800m to €1.3bn, the majority of which are expected to be in France.

Ciarán began as a shallow low that developed over the Ohio Valley, US, on Sunday 29 October, associated with very strong temperature gradients in the region. On Wednesday 1 November, the storm explosively deepened by 34 mb in 24 hours over warm sea surface temperatures, classifying Ciarán as a bomb cyclone. The low-pressure centre of Ciarán arrived in south-western parts of England overnight into Thursday 2 November at 952 mb, the lowest pressure ever recorded in England and Wales in November.

The long trailing cold front from Ciarán spawned another shallow low over the Alps overnight Thursday into Friday, causing significant flooding in southern parts of Europe, most notably the Tuscany region of Italy, far away from the centre of the storm. Verisk says that this flooding, along with the impacts in France and elsewhere from windstorm Domingos over the past weekend, may contribute losses to this event which, depending on hours clauses, could be considered a single loss occurrence along with Ciarán’s wind impacts.

Ciarán’s impacts were most pronounced in northwest France and the Channel Islands. In France, the worst damage was in the northwest, in Brest. Similar impacts were observed in the Channel Islands. Jersey in particular was very hard hit, with some of the more extreme roof and structural damage there likely caused by a strong tornado that was spawned by the storm. Jersey also saw golf ball-sized hail which contributed to both roof and vehicle damage.

Verisk’s modeled insured loss estimates include insured physical damage from wind to property, including residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and motor, including structures and their contents, as well as business interruption and additional living expenses (for the UK only).

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