Insured losses from recent flooding in Germany will likely fall within the range of €2bn to €3bn, according to estimates from Moody’s RMS Event Response.

An initial period of heavy rain on 28th May was followed by a more prolonged period of heavy rain mainly focused on southern Germany between 30th May and 3rd June, with several areas observing rainfall amounts greater than their monthly averages. This led to widespread flash and river flooding, initially of smaller rivers across southern Germany (mainly in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria), with the Danube River later reaching flood stage in several locations as the floodwater from the headwater catchments accumulated downstream.

Based on an analysis of the flooding using Moody’s RMS Europe Inland Flood HD Models, the loss estimate reflects insured property damage, spoiled contents and business interruption across residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural property and motor lines. It also considers sources of post-event loss amplification, recent inflationary trends, exposure growth and increases in insurance take-up. The estimate does not include insured losses to non-modelled exposures such as transport and utility infrastructure lines of business, and crops.

Daniel Bernet, assistant director, model product management, Moody’s, commented: “This event has much in common with the central European floods of 2013 and not just because it fell on the same days in the year. May 2024 was among the wettest months recorded in southern Germany. Soils were fully saturated after the initial heavy rainfall on May 28 and May 30, the more prolonged rainfall associated with a typical Vb-type event then led to widespread flooding in southern Germany.

“Even the insured losses from 2013 and the current events are in the same range when trending the 2013 losses to today. In Baden-Württemberg, given the flood insurance take-up rate is as high as 94 percent, most of the residential losses will be covered. Unfortunately, this high level of coverage is not the case in Bavaria where the flood insurance take-up rate is 47%.”

Moody's estimate includes insured losses for southern Germany, which is expected to constitute most of this event’s loss and excludes losses from flooding in Switzerland, Austria, Czechia, Hungary and Italy as contributions from these countries are anticipated to be minimal. It also excludes any potential losses from subsequent flooding further downstream and/or triggered by renewed precipitation.

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