Concern about artificial intelligence-enhanced malicious attacks has topped Gartner’s emerging risk rankings in the second quarter of 2024 – for the second consecutive quarter.

During the second quarter of 2024, Gartner surveyed 274 senior risk executives and managers to document and compare emerging risks, which are those that hold higher uncertainty because their evolution is rapid, nonlinear or both.

Three of the top five most cited emerging risks are in the technology category. New concerns regarding soft ransomware targets entered the tracker for the first time. Soft ransomware targets include the types of systems that may be especially vulnerable to ransomware due to under-investment or technical debt, leading to longer disruptions in business operations when attacks occur.

“Similar to AI-enhanced malicious attacks, soft ransomware targets require minimal experience and cost to cause significant financial and reputational damage,” said Gamika Takkar, director, research in the Gartner risk and audit practice. “Ransomware-as-a-service lowers the barrier to entry for inexperienced cyber criminals who know just enough about how to attack and disrupt business operations, creating worse impacts than usual when attacks occur.”

Escalating political polarisation, which first entered the tracker in Q4 2023, held steady as the third most cited concern, while misaligned organisational talent profile moved up from the fifth to fourth most cited risk.

Top five most commonly cited emerging risks in Q2 2024 (Source: Gartner)

1 AI-enhanced malicious attacks
2 Soft ransomware targets
3 Escalating political polarisation
4 Misaligned organisational talent profile
5 AI-assisted misinformation

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