A State of Emergency has been declared across 54 of Florida’s 67 counties in anticipation of a major hurricane. Milton is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida by mid-week.

Whilst the precise location and intensity at landfall are uncertain, areas up and down the western coast will be preparing for a major event, with strong winds, heavy rain and life-threatening, catastrophic storm surge anticipated.

Anna Neely, managing director, and head of catastrophe R&D at Howden Re, said: “Milton is currently classified as a High End Category 4 hurricane, with wind speeds of 155 mph, and located approximately 520 miles southwest of Tampa Bay. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane between Tampa Bay and Fort Myers late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning, with estimated winds around 125 mph and potential for further strengthening. It is now one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since Dorian in 2019.”

Whilst a degree of uncertainty remains surrounding Milton’s exact track and intensity, Neely says the greatest consensus indicates landfall in the Tampa Bay/Sarasota region.

“By midday Wednesday, the storm is likely to encounter wind shear which could weaken it. As wind shear takes effect, Milton's wind field is projected to expand significantly and could make landfall as a Major Category 3 or 4 hurricane,” she said. “The Tampa/St. Petersburg region experienced 7-9 feet of storm surge during Helene’s landfall, but with Milton, surge heights could reach 10-15 feet. Areas around Tampa Bay are particularly vulnerable to this surge due to their low elevation and proximity to the coast. If Hurricane Milton makes landfall as forecast, it will be the strongest hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area since the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, which caused devastating storm surge and widespread damage. Milton’s potential to bring higher surges, combined with a much denser population and modern infrastructure, could lead to catastrophic impacts.”


Exhibit courtesy Howden Re

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