Climate risk professionals from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter warn that climate policies must adapt to rising global temperatures to prevent catastrophic economic and humanitarian impacts.

Without immediate action, global GDP could shrink by 25% by 2050 and up to 50% between 2070 and 2090 under high-emissions scenarios, the report warns.

The team has launched a new climate risk tool that addresses the discrepancy between climate projections and policy outcomes by providing a comprehensive overview of current and projected risks (up to 2050) across four key domains: climate, nature, society and the economy.

The Planetary Solvency Risk Dashboard was designed to help policymakers assess and visualise the escalating risks from climate change, biodiversity loss, societal instability and economic disruption. It integrates climate science data and expert risk analysis to track current impacts and project future risk trajectories up to 2050, using a traffic light system to indicate the severity and likelihood of worsening conditions.

Sandy Trust, IFoA council member and the Planetary Solvency Risk Dashboard‘s lead collaborator, said: “Nature is our foundation, providing food, water and air, as well as the raw materials and energy that power our economy. Threats to the stability of this foundation are risks to future human prosperity which we must take action to avoid.

“If implemented, this risk-led methodology would provide a clear tool for policymakers to avoid the catastrophic impacts that could be experienced if we do not change course, thereby supporting future prosperity.”

Professor Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “Our dashboard communicates how the risk of planetary insolvency has been escalating over time. We want this to be an easily accessible, regularly-updated resource that decision-makers can turn to. It can help us all see the urgency of the situation and inspire action to get humanity on a more sustainable path.”

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