Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most pressing global risk for 2026, underlining a sharp rise in economic and geopolitical competition and a weakening of international cooperation.

This is amongst the findings of the World Economic Forum’s latest annual Global Risks Report, in which geoeconomic confrontation was identified as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026 – making it the greatest near-term concern and potentially the most severe over the next two years. State-based armed conflict ranked second for 2026 but fell to fifth over the two year horizon.

The WEF’s report reflects a broadly pessimistic outlook, as half of those surveyed expect global turbulence over the next two years, up 14 percentage points year-on-year. A further 40% anticipate conditions to be unsettled, while only 10% foresee stability. Looking ahead a decade, 57% forecast turbulence, with just 11% predicting calm.

“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director, WEF.

Economic risks are up sharply alongside geopolitical tensions. Economic downturn and inflation both climbed eight places in the two year outlook, while the perceived risk of an asset bubble burst has also increased. Respondents pointed to mounting debt and trade tensions as factors that could drive further volatility. Nearly 70% expect a multipolar or fragmented global order over the next decade.

Technology and societal risks remain prominent. Misinformation and disinformation ranks second in the two year outlook, while cyber insecurity ranks sixth. The perceived risk of adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence has risen the most quickly, reflecting concerns about jobs, social cohesion and security.

Societal polarisation ranks fourth for 2026 and rose further over the medium-term. Inequality remains a persistent concern and was again identified as the most interconnected risk, reinforcing other pressures such as economic strain and social division.

Environmental risks slipped down the near-term rankings as immediate economic and geopolitical issues dominate attention. However, over the 10-year horizon, extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical change to Earth’s systems are identified as the most severe risks overall.

Commenting on the findings, chief risk officer of Zurich UK, Richard Peden, said that while current geopolitical turbulence is focusing minds on the risks created by civil disruption and conflict, negotiating these challenges should not come at the expense of managing the longer-term risks of climate change.

"Extreme weather events still [rank] as a top five peril and the number one concern for ten years’ time," he said. "Disruptions to critical infrastructure should also remain in focus – when infrastructure fails, everything else is at risk. Businesses and nations alike need to recognise how interconnected these threats are and strengthen their resilience in order to face these escalating risks with confidence.”

The WEF’s analysis assessed risks across immediate, short- to medium- and long-term horizons, highlighting how near-term shocks are increasingly interacting with longer term structural pressures across the global economy and society.

“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” added Børge Brende, president and CEO, WEF. “Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them.”

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