The scenarios and circumstances surrounding civil unrest in the UK are evolving and require insurers and brokers to be aware of the changing risks, according to a report by Synthetik Insurance Technologies, a Lloyd’s Lab graduate.

The report takes the form of four trigger-based vignettes or modelled scenarios, each set out with the intention of informing underwriting, claims readiness and continuity planning over the next 12-24 months. The modelled scenarios are based on protests surrounding asylum hotels in England in 2025 and represent four distinct risks that are shaping UK SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) exposure; local flashpoints, policing legitimacy, overseas conflict and domestic mobilisation, macro-financial stress.

The report suggests that losses scale non-linearly when unrest routes converge near dense retail, police, and transit hubs adding that, as a result, routes and corridor exposure are critical to understanding worst-case loss outcomes.

Tim Brewer, Synthetik COO, said: “SRCC in the UK has evolved from a background peril into a route-based accumulation risk that is critical to monitor accurately. The severity and spread of loss depend on how civil unrest manifests across spaces, creating concentrations of exposure that may not be visible in more generalised approaches, such as concentric rings. For underwriters and brokers, this represents a significant change in how risk is priced, monitored and accumulated across portfolios.”


See the next issue of CIR Magazine for more on this report.

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