Estimated indirect economic consequences of climate induced sea level rise are much higher than previous studies imply.

A research team led by Delft University of Technology and including the PBL Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency, the European Institute on Economics and the Environment in Italy looked at the impact on 271 European regions until 2100.

The study suggests a GDP loss of 1.26% (£748bn) for the whole of the EU and UK, with some coastal regions losing up to 21% of GDP, revealing striking regional disparities.

Around 44% of the EU or UK populations live within 50km from the coastline – at at risk of coastal flooding and significant economic disruption as a result. Furthermore, these coastal regions contribute to nearly 40% of the European GDP, and 75% of Europe’s international trade volume is carried out through maritime routes.

As the sea rises, there will be winners and losers across economic activities that are affected asymmetrically, some of which might consider strategic relocation away from the coast, while others engage in restructuring, regional economic expansion or implement climate adaptation strategies (like seawalls). Particularly important is the local presence of critical infrastructure sectors (like utilities or transport), as they form the backbone of a region’s economy.

Eventually, direct damage or loss can have far-reaching implications, from disrupting supply chains to impacting public services. Ensuring the swift restoration of this infrastructure is therefore a key factor in regional economic resilience, regional recovery, and the continued provision of essential services, however, this recovery process may also come at a cost to other public services (such as healthcare and education) and have non-trivial long-term effects on productivity.

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