As the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war approaches, risk professionals are abandoning plans and contingencies drawn up earlier in the war, in response to fundamentally changed dynamics.

According to this week’s Airmic Big Question poll, just 21% of risk leaders are following geopolitical risk contingencies drawn up earlier.

Hoe-Yeong Loke, head of research at Airmic, said the events in just the past few days have tested the UK government in its aim of bridging the gap between America and Europe when it comes to global security and trade.

“Risk professionals and their organisations need to be even more attuned to the interconnected nature of such geopolitical risks, given the implications for fiscal policy and the economy,” he explained. “Organisations have to be agile in responding to these interconnected risks while being in a permanent state of readiness.”

At the Munich Security Conference last week, analysts observed how the post-World War Two security architecture in Europe has changed fundamentally, as Europe can no longer rely on the US to come to its aid.

Julia Graham (pictured), CEO of Airmic, added: “This year’s Munich Security Conference has been a chilling wake-up call for Europe, as the US looks set to rewrite the rules of the transatlantic alliance. Businesses are monitoring and navigating the short-term risk outlook, while scenario planning for the longer view in the context of all this geopolitical volatility. In this situation, building resilience is imperative as businesses need to be prepared to deal with significant disruption caused by geopolitical risk.”

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