Organisations are more at risk of acute supply chain failure in 2025 as a result of heightened global geopolitical tensions and protectionist trade strategies, according to risk specialists at Marsh. The firm’s latest Political Risk Report also highlights the challenges presented by shifting market and political dynamics, especially as they relate to the energy transition.

According to the report, organisations that trade with connector countries – such as Vietnam, Mexico, South Korea and Hungary – to circumvent existing or anticipated trade controls, or have suppliers doing the same, may be prone to greater trade policy-induced disruption in the months and years ahead.

As a result of deteriorating relations between major trading partners, governments may also impose trade barriers on goods from connector countries – especially those that include components from the originally targeted country – which could create significant global supply chain volatility, the advisory warns.

Robert Perry, global political risks and structured credit leader, Marsh Specialty, said: “Heightened risks [related to] the economy, geopolitics and the changing climate are creating an incredibly complex operating environment unlike any other organisations have experienced in decades. Those that build on their ability to comprehend, assess and mitigate the risks facing their operations will likely be better positioned to identify opportunities."

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