Less than a third of senior aviation executives believe their business strategies are equipped to meet the emerging risk challenges of the next ten years, according to a new study carried out by Willis.

Of the 130 senior industry representatives canvassed for the report, just half said their current strategies are resilient to today’s emerging risk environment. Notably, a further 80% of key decision-makers, and 90% of those leading or implementing risk strategies, could not identify their organisation’s definition of ‘emerging risk’.

Further, nearly half were unable to list their organisation’s key emerging risks, despite the sector’s exposure to significant pressures ranging from climate change to cyber threats.

Climate transition risk ranked high on executives’ agendas, with a third placing climate change in their overall top five emerging risks. Half of respondents ranked environmental factors among the top five over the next decade. Fixed-asset operators – such as airports, fuel suppliers and cargo handlers – were identified as particularly exposed to climate-related threats.

Geopolitical and economic risks also featured consistently across all time horizons, including now, the next two years, and the next decade. Financial shocks, geopolitical instability, and insurance gaps were commonly cited. These risks were also seen as highly interconnected with others.

Cyber risks remain prominent, tied with supply chain disruptions as the most significant current risk for 11% of respondents. Cyber threats are viewed as long-term concerns and are increasingly linked with artificial intelligence – both as an enabler of attacks and a potential line of defence.

Artificial intelligence itself was seen as the top immediate risk by 36% of respondents but fell out of the top five for longer-term projections. One airport executive noted the dual concern of AI's potential misuse and the competitive disadvantage of avoiding adoption. The industry’s openness to data sharing could accelerate AI adoption across the aviation sector.

John Rooley, chief executive officer, Willis Aviation and Space, said the challenges faced today in the aviation industry demand a re-evaluation of how we perceive and manage emerging and interconnected risks. “Our survey shows that aviation experts – traditionally [skilled in the] long-term planning that accommodates fleet renewals, infrastructure development and regulatory compliance – have been struggling to define the emerging risk landscape. The time has come to take a proactive stance and align planning with a forward-thinking approach that embraces adaptability and resilience.”

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