A rise in sea surface temperatures and a weaker La Niña weather phase will contribute to a “very active” 2024 hurricane season, according to a report from Acrisure Re.

The reinsurer’s annual Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook also shows that past analogue years would indicate that the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is trending toward a positive anomaly, likely flipping from negative to positive early during the hurricane season. It has been claimed that positive QBO values are associated with more Cape Verde storms forming in the deep tropics.

Further, conditions in the Sahel region of Africa appear to be very close to average. This means dust is unlikely to play a major role in suppressing hurricane activity.

Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re, said: “After the uncertain conditions we experienced last year, we have much greater certainty that the 2024 hurricane season will be very active. Our expert analytics and modelling teams are dedicated to staying abreast of developments, ensuring our brokers are fully equipped to offer the best advice to our clients.”

The 2023 hurricane season experienced significant uncertainty in seasonal forecasts because of competing conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Ultimately, 2023 had an above-normal storm count but close to average storm strength.

In contrast, forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season show much less uncertainty. There is near-unanimous agreement among government agencies, universities and private entities that conditions are ripe for an extremely active season, with some models suggesting the activity could be double the average.

---